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Morning DeskThe screen your desk opens first.Shadow BookOur call next to yours on your real cargoes, in dollars.Decision JournalEvery call and every decision, chained with SHA-256.Accuracy RecordEach range checked against the next close. Misses stay in.

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Accuracy→Coverage table→What does not work→Pricing→Company→Contact→

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Today’s record

1 day: 79.2–80.8%
5 days: 78.4–80.6%
21 days: 77.2–80.6%

Share of closes that landed inside our 80% ranges, seven markets since 2012. The live record starts on day 0.

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The decision on every barrel, every morning.

Decision software for Gulf oil trading desks.

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Morning DeskTue 3 Nov 2026, 07:00 Dubai07:00, brief sent

Ranges, 80%centred on the last close, no direction

Market	Last	1 day	5 days	21 days	Regime
BrentNYMEX BZ, $/bbl	104.77	101.11–108.56	96.50–113.75	88.45–124.10	volatile
WTINYMEX CL, $/bbl	96.46	92.96–100.09	88.71–104.88	80.87–115.05	volatile
ULSDNYMEX HO, $/bbl	185.71	179.41–192.23	171.37–201.25	156.17–220.82	volatile
RBOBNYMEX RB, $/bbl	139.10close 30 Oct	135.50–142.81	131.02–147.68	122.36–158.14	normal
Diesel crackHO − Brent, $/bbl	80.94	75.86–86.01	69.28–92.60	56.24–105.63	volatile
Gasoline crackRB − Brent, $/bbl	21.46close 30 Oct	18.90–24.03	15.75–27.18	10.07–32.86	volatile
Henry HubNYMEX NG, $/MMBtu	2.856	2.748–2.968	2.620–3.114	2.378–3.430	normal
Held 2012–26		79.2–80.8%	78.4–80.6%	77.2–80.6%

Decisionsillustrative inputs

Gasoil 10 ppm · 35,000 t · Mina Al Ahmadi

Sell now, or store 7 days at Fujairah?

Sell nowreference
Store 7 days, sell spot · unhedged−$428k80% −$4.07M to +$3.35M
Store 7 days, sell forward today · hedged−$429k80% −$514k to −$344k

Recommended Sell now, measurable edge

Jet A-1 · 60,000 t FOB Mina Al Ahmadi

Sell FOB now, or deliver CFR Rotterdam via the Cape?

Sell FOB nowreference
Deliver CFR Rotterdam, priced on arrival · unhedged−$44k80% −$16.77M to +$17.95M
Deliver CFR Rotterdam, sold forward today · hedged−$44k80% −$392k to +$305k

Keep Sell FOB now, no measurable edge in expected value, lower risk

CDU-2 Mina Abdullah · 180 kb/d · one week

Which crude slate this week?

Arab Light 100%$16.64/bbl80% 5.32–28.07
Basrah Medium 70% / Arab Light 30%$17.00/bbl80% 5.90–28.23
Basrah Medium 100%$17.16/bbl80% 6.06–28.37

Keep Arab Light 100%, no measurable edge

Alertssince last close

RegimeBrent Regime normal → volatile
MissBrent −7.63% on the day, outside yesterday's 99% range of −5.41% to +5.71%
RegimeWTI Regime normal → volatile
MissWTI −7.36% on the day, outside yesterday's 99% range of −5.91% to +6.28%
RegimeULSD Regime normal → volatile

Curvessecond month less first

Brent−3.07$/bbl, backwardation
WTI−1.66$/bbl, backwardation
ULSD−3.68$/bbl, backwardation
RBOB−2.47$/bbl, backwardation
Henry Hub+0.49$/MMBtu, contango

07:00 briefe-mail and WhatsApp

CrudeBrent 104.77, −7.63% on the day and outside yesterday's 99% range. Regime now volatile.
GasoilSell now. Storing 7 days nets −12.23 $/t in a backwardated curve.
JetNo measurable edge between FOB and CFR Rotterdam. FOB carries less risk.
CDU-2No measurable edge between slates. Keep Arab Light 100%.

Public data, NYMEX closes of 2 Nov, VIX 21.15Horizons in trading daysEngine run 2026-11-03 23:02

78.2%

Brent 1-day range held, last 239 sessions

77–81%

of 80% ranges held since 2012, seven markets

Nobody can call Brent up or down, so we price the range instead.

Morning Desk

Ranges for seven markets and a dollar value on each cargo, before the open.

The Morning Desk screen of the application: the ranges table on the left, the gasoil decision in the middle, the alerts on the right.

Shadow Book

Our call next to yours on your real book, added up in dollars.

The Shadow Book screen of the application on the demo desk, every decision of the first fourteen days scored in dollars against ours.

Decision Journal

Every call timestamped and chained, nobody edits it afterwards.

The Decision Journal screen of the application, chained entries with their hashes and the verified head hash.

Accuracy Record

Each range scored against the next close since 2012, misses included.

The public Accuracy Record page of the application, ranges published and scored, with the live coverage table.

What it costs.

USD a month per desk. The first week is free and the first month is refunded on request.

Desk$3,540a month, one market Trading$8,940a month, every market National oil company$750k+a year, on your own systems

Start on your own book.

One trading week on your own book, with no card and no call.

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